Monday, March 19, 2018

It's Not Just Jim Rickards, I Prescribe To $10,000 Gold

The imminent collapse of modern currencies will push gold up to $10,000 an ounce, assuming central banks resort back to a gold-backed monetary system, said Byron King, editor of Jim Rickards’ Gold Speculator. 

“If you take the global money supply, back it with 40% gold, you need $10,000 gold to make the math work, and that’s just using a 40% backing,” King told Kitco News on the sidelines of the PDAC 2018. “And it has to do with the eventual demise of modern currencies.”

Byron noted that gold stocks at current valuations are much more attractive now than they were two years ago, and said that today’s miners are backed by “better numbers” and “smarter geologists.” “We are in a new gold bull cycle, we’re in a blip of six or eight month downturn, but it will turn around. 

These are fundamentally good companies with great value behind them,” he said.

- Source, Kitco News

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Jim Rickards explains the day after plan... Forget gold, Silver is going out of sight.

How should you be preparing for the big one? An economic collapse looms on the horizon, but many are simply unprepared. Don't be caught off guard, heed Jim Rickards latest advice and take action before you are completely and utterly wiped out.

- Video Source

Monday, March 12, 2018

Gold: The Once and Future Money with James Rickards

James Rickards joins Cambridge House International, where he discusses how gold has dominated the financial scene throughout history and how it will once again rise from the ashes and take back its rightful throne. Gold is coming.

- Video Source

Friday, March 9, 2018

Rickards: First Came Currency War, Now Trade War, Then Shooting War

A popular thesis since the 1930s is that a natural progression exists from currency wars to trade wars to shooting wars. Both history and analysis support this thesis.

Currency wars do not exist all the time; they arise under certain conditions and persist until there is either systemic reform or systemic collapse. The conditions that give rise to currency wars are too much debt and too little growth.

In those circumstances, countries try to steal growth from trading partners by cheapening their currencies to promote exports and create export-related jobs.

The problem with currency wars is that they are zero-sum or negative-sum games. It is true that countries can obtain short-term relief by cheapening their currencies, but sooner than later, their trading partners also cheapen their currencies to regain the export advantage.

This process of tit-for-tat devaluations feeds on itself with the pendulum of short-term trade advantage swinging back and forth and no one getting any further ahead.

After a few years, the futility of currency wars becomes apparent, and countries resort to trade wars. This consists of punitive tariffs, export subsidies and nontariff barriers to trade.

The dynamic is the same as in a currency war. The first country to impose tariffs gets a short-term advantage, but retaliation is not long in coming and the initial advantage is eliminated as trading partners impose tariffs in response.

Despite the illusion of short-term advantage, in the long-run everyone is worse off. The original condition of too much debt and too little growth never goes away.

Finally, tensions rise, rival blocs are formed and a shooting war begins. The shooting wars often have a not-so-hidden economic grievance or rationale behind them.

The sequence in the early 20th century began with a currency war that started in Weimar Germany with a hyperinflation (1921–23) and then extended through a French devaluation (1925), a U.K. devaluation (1931), a U.S. devaluation (1933) and another French/U.K. devaluation (1936).

Meanwhile, a global trade war emerged after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs (1930) and comparable tariffs of trading partners of the U.S.

Finally, a shooting war progressed with the Japanese invasion of Manchuria (1931), the Japanese invasion of Beijing and China (1937), the German invasion of Poland (1939) and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (1941).

Eventually, the world was engulfed in the flames of World War II, and the international monetary system came to a complete collapse until the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944.

Is this pattern repressing itself today?

Sadly, the answer appears to be yes. The new currency war began in January 2010 with efforts of the Obama administration to promote U.S. growth with a weak dollar. By August 2011, the U.S. dollar reached an all-time low on the Fed’s broad real index.

Other nations retaliated, and the period of the “cheap dollar” was followed by the “cheap euro” and “cheap yuan” after 2012.

Once again, currency wars proved to be a dead end.

Now the trade wars have begun. On Thursday, July 27, the U.S. Congress passed one of the toughest economic sanctions bills ever against Russia.

This law provided that U.S. companies may not participate in Russian efforts to explore for oil and gas in the Arctic. But it went further and said that even foreign companies that do business with Russia in Arctic exploration will be banned from U.S. markets and U.S. contracts.

These new sanctions pose an existential threat to Russia because depends heavily on oil and gas revenue to propel its economy.

Russia has vowed to retaliate...

- Source, James Rickards

Monday, March 5, 2018

Jim Rickards: Fed Policy Implications for 2018

Jim Rickards discusses the recent action witnessed by the FED and how reckless they have truly become. How will this all play out? Will it result in another 2008 disaster?

- Video Source

Friday, March 2, 2018

Michael Pento Talks to Jim Rickards - What Happens When This All Unravels?

Michael Pento sits down with best selling author and National security expert Jim Rickards to talk about North Korea, debt the stock markets and when this all unravels.

- Source, Michael Pento

Monday, February 26, 2018

James Rickards: Is the Future of Money Gold, Crypto or Fiat?

James Rickards discusses a question many of us have asked, what is the future of money? 

Currently, we dominated by a highly corrupt and evil fiat based system, however, that is not to say that it will be replaced anytime soon, given the tremendous power that it allots our financial elites. 

However, things do have a way of spinning out of control, time and time again, as history has shown. Will the successor be the rising crypto star, or will precious metals once again reassert themselves to dominate all others? 

Rickards discusses this, plus much more.

- Video Source

Saturday, February 24, 2018

How Could Central Banks Unwind QE Without Causing a Recession or Worse?

Especially in hindsight, it is easy to point out the obviousness of the Internet stock bubble in the late 90’s and the subprime-mortgage-driven real estate bubble that max-inflated in 2006. They were parabolic and contained within silos; you could point to the specific-to-them factors that were feeding such wild and unsustainable price levitation.

But what about when The Fed prints so much money over such a long period of time that it seeps into every nook and cranny of the entire economy? And how much more difficult is it to recognize a bubble when most every asset class is part of it?

Rickards flatly states:

Bernanke and Yellen did not get a residential real estate bubble. Instead, they got an “everything bubble.” In the fullness of time, this will be viewed as the greatest blunder in the history of central banking.

What happens when you print $8.3 trillion in money and only get $2.1 trillion of growth? What happened to the extra $6.2 trillion of printed money?

The answer is that it went into assets. Stocks, bonds, emerging-market debt and real estate have all been pumped up by central bank money printing.


This conundrum of how central banks unwind easy money without causing a recession (or worse) is just one small part of a risky mosaic.

Smart investors should prepare now with reduced exposure to stocks and increased allocations to cash and gold.

Lastly, William White, the former chief economist for the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS (“The central bankers’ central bank”) summed it up in no less stark terms than these: “All the market indicators right now look very similar to what we saw before the Lehman crisis, but the lesson has somehow been forgotten.”

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

The Dominos Are Starting to Fall, The Markets Are Going to Crash

James Rickards appears on Bloomberg news, where he discusses how everything is starting to line up and fall into place, for another major market crash. This is just the beginning, we haven't seen anything yet.

- Video Source

Monday, February 19, 2018

First There Was 1998, Then 2008, Now 2018? The Next Major Crash is Coming

James Rickards appears on Fox Business, where he talks about the history of crashes the markets have experienced and relates them to the current setup we our now seeing in real time. 2018 appears to be the year of the next big crash.

- Video Source

Friday, February 16, 2018

U.S. Dollar Decline, Currency War with China, Gold Price Spike

The US Dollar is declining, a currency war is erupting behind the scenes with China and threatens to spill over into the broader markets. Gold is setting itself up for a massive spike higher.

- Video Source

Monday, February 12, 2018

Silver Was Money, Is Money and Always Will Be Money

The Roman Republic and the later Roman Empire had gold coins called the aureus and solidus, but they also minted a popular silver coin called the denarius. One denarius was the daily wage for unskilled labor and Roman soldiers.

Of course, in the late Empire, the aureus, solidus and denarius were all debased by mixing the gold and silver with base metals. The decline of the Roman Empire went hand in hand with the decline of sound money.

In the early ninth century AD, Charlemagne greatly expanded silver coinage to compensate for a shortage of gold. This was successful in stimulating the economy of the predecessor of the Holy Roman Empire. In a sense, Charlemagne was the inventor of quantitative easing over 1,000 years ago. Silver was his preferred form of money.

Under the U.S. Coinage Act of 1792, both gold and silver coins were legal tender in the U.S. From 1794 to 1935, the U.S. Mint issued “silver dollars” in various designs. These were widely circulated and used as money by everyday Americans. The American dollar was legally defined as one ounce of silver.

The American silver dollar of the late eighteenth century was a copy of the earlier Spanish Real de a ocho minted by the Spanish Empire beginning in the late sixteenth century. The English name for the Spanish coin was the “piece of eight,” (ocho is the Spanish world for “eight”) because the coin could easily be divided into one-eighth pieces.

Until 2001 stock prices on the New York Stock Exchange were quoted in eighths and sixteenths based on the original Spanish silver coin and its one-eight sections.

Until 1935 U.S. silver coins were 90% pure silver with 10% copper alloy added for durability. After the U.S. Coinage Act of 1965, the silver content of half-dollars, quarters and dimes was reduced from 90% to 40% due to rising price of silver and hoarding by citizens who prized the valuable silver content of the older coins.

The new law signed by President Johnson in 1965 marked the end of true silver coinage by the U.S. Other legislation in 1968 ended the redeemability of old “silver certificates” (paper Treasury notes) for silver bullion.

Thereafter, U.S. coinage consisted of base metals and paper money that was not convertible into silver; (gold convertibility had already ended in 1933).

Let’s hope that the U.S. is not following in the footsteps of the Roman Empire in terms of a political decline coinciding with the substitution of base metals for true gold and silver coinage.

In 1986, the U.S. reintroduced silver coinage with a .999 pure silver one-ounce coin called the American Silver Eagle. However, this is not legal tender although it does carry a “one dollar” face value. The silver eagle is a bullion coin prized by investors and collectors for its silver content. But it is not money.

Who in their right mind would pay a full ounce of silver for goods or services worth only a buck?

In short, silver is as much a monetary metal as gold, and has just as good a pedigree when it comes to use in coinage. Silver has supported the economies of empires, kingdoms and nation states throughout history.

It should come as no surprise that percentage increases and decreases in silver and gold prices denominated in dollars are closely correlated.

Silver is more volatile than gold and is more difficult to analyze because it has far more industrial applications than gold. Silver is useful in engines, electronics and coatings.

Interestingly, gold is used very little other than as money in bullion form. Gold has some highly specialized uses for coating and ultra-thin wires, but these are a very small part of the gold market.

Both gold and silver are used extensively in jewelry. I consider jewelry to be “wearable wealth” and akin to bullion rather than a separate market segment.

Because silver has more industrial uses than gold, the price can rise or fall based on the business cycle independent of monetary considerations. However, over long periods of time, monetary and bullion aspects tend to dominate industrial uses and silver closely tracks its close cousin gold in dollar terms.

While gold and silver prices have a high correlation, the correlation is not perfect. There are times where gold outperforms silver and vice versa. Right now we are in a sweet spot for silver.

Gold is performing well, and silver is performing even better!

The latest data is telling me that silver prices are set to rally. This conclusion is based in part on a bull market thesis for gold.

Gold staged an historic rally from 1999 to 2011, from about $250 per ounce to $1,900 per ounce, a gain of about 900% in that twelve-year span. Since then, gold prices fell in a 50% retracement (using the 1999 base) and bottomed at around $1,050 per ounce in December 2015.

Secular bull and bear market tops and bottoms are difficult to see in real time, but they become apparent with hindsight. Gold gained over 23% in 2016-2017. From the perspective of early 2018, it is clear than the gold bear market ended over two years ago and a new multi-year secular bull market has begun.

Silver is not only along for the ride, it is showing even better performance than gold, albeit with greater volatility. Both the gold and silver rallies are based on a combination of supply/demand fundamentals, geopolitical pressures creating safe haven demand, and increasing inflation expectations as confidence in central banking and fiat money erodes.

In addition, silver has an excellent technical set-up right now. Precious metals analyst Samson Li writing in Thomson Reuters on January 2, 2018 offers this insight in the current technical trading position for silver:

Technically, silver is ripe for a major breakout to the upside in 2018. The CFTC figures Managed Money positions show that COMEX silver has been in a net short for three straight weeks since 12th December. This is not unheard of but is relatively rare for silver; the last time COMEX silver was net short was between the end of June and the first week of August 2015. As investment sentiment can swing from one extreme to another, and given silver’s innate volatility, this net short position should point to the possibility of a sharp short-covering rally. Looking back at the corresponding period in 2015, silver price was trading at $15.61/oz on the 7th July, and it was the third consecutive week recording a net short position. Approximately a year later, silver was trading over $20/oz in July 2016… [T]he current poor sentiment does suggest that silver could be one of the better performing precious metals in 2018, barring any crisis that could trump most of the commodities but gold.

The good news is that this secular rally in silver is in its early days. Recent gains will be sustained and amplified in the months and years to come.

Silver will outperform gold in the short-run, and shares in well-managed silver mining companies will do even better than silver.

- Source, Jim Rickards via the Daily Reckoning